The Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.

2 M.A. Student of Economics, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor of Mathematics, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.

10.22103/jdc.2020.16094.1099

Abstract

Objective: Examining different perspectives on the impact of inflation on economic growth shows a lack of consensus on this issue. Understanding the exact relationship between inflation and economic growth requires experimental studies with a new method. Therefore, the main purpose of this article is to end this disagreement with the help of meta-analysis
 
Methods: The meta-analysis method was used to investigate this issue for the first time. Meta-analysis is the use of specific statistical methods to summarize the results of independent studies to find the most accurate form of relationship between the variables under study. These statistical methods help to summarize different studies and summarize them objectively so that personal opinions do not have a significant impact on this process. In this meta-analysis, 29 studies that had the necessary conditions to perform meta-analysis were identified and their results were analyzed. The terms and criteria of the meta-analysis of this research are: research has been done for developing and less developed countries and Practical extraction have the effect size.
 
Results: During the research process on the effect of inflation on economic growth, among articles, dissertations, reports, etc., according to the set criteria, a total of 5 dissertations and 24 articles with matching topics or relatively high topic similarity and suitable for meta-analysis were selected. According to the funnel diagram, the effect size of the studies does not have a diffusion bias. Due to the dual-tidy arrangement method, the present study did not need another study to be completed. Therefore, the present model does not suffer from diffusion bias and does not need other studies to eliminate bias and create symmetry on both sides of the average effect size in the fan chart. the effect size of each study is measured according to the value of the correlation coefficient of the studies. In all studies except studies (4, 8, 15, 17) in the chart that have the size of non-significant effects, the rest of the studies have significant effect size. Also, to evaluate the significance of the overall effect size of the studies, two methods of fixed and random effect size have been used
 
Conclusion: Also, the results of research on the effect of inflation on economic growth and the identification of those variables, hypotheses and models used in inflation and growth studies showed that the effect of independent variables such as: inflation (31.18%), investment (17.20%) and government spending (9.67%) had the greatest impact on growth. In the study of the studied hypotheses, it was found that among the 52 hypotheses examined, the hypothesis of the effect of inflation on economic growth (55.76%) had the highest repetition among the selected studies, followed by the hypotheses of the effect of government spending and inflation on economic growth (54.57). 11%) and the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty on economic growth (9.61%) had the highest percentage among the studies.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

ازکیا، مصطفی؛ توکلی، محمود. (1385). فراتحلیل مطالعات رضایت شغلی در سازمان‌های آموزشی. علوم اجتماعی، 27، 26-1.
بهشتی، کریم. (1393). تأثیر تورم،نااطمینانی تورم و مخارج دولت بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران. پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تبریز.
بهفر، سارا. (1392). فراتحلیل پژوهش‌های آمادگی الکترونیک سازمان‌ها در ایران. پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران.
پیرایی، خسرو، دادور، بهاره. (1390). تأثیر تورم بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران با تأکید بر نااطمینانی. پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه پایدار (پژوهش‌های اقتصادی)، 38، 80-67.
تفضلی، فریدون. (1372). اقتصاد کلان نظریه و سیاست‌های اقتصادی اقتصادی، تهران، نشر نی. صفحه 672.
حقدوست، علی اکبر. (1390). مرور ساختار یافته ومتاآنالیز، مفاهیم، کاربردها ومحاسبات،کرمان مؤسسه پژوهشگران بدون مرز.
حنطه، مهدی وهمکاران (1397). بررسی پدیده خنثایی پول در اقتصاد ایران. اقتصاد مالی،12(۴۲)، 74-47.
رضائیان، محسن(1385). واژه‌نامه توصیفی فراتحلیل‌ها. تهران، مجله ایرانی علوم پزشکی.
دادگر، یدالله؛ کشاورز، غلامرضا. (1384). تبیین رابطه تورم و رشداقتصادی در ایران. جستارهای اقتصادی، 3(5)، 88-59.
سهیلی، کیومرث؛ دل‌انگیزان، سهراب. (1392). برآورد تأثیر نرخ‌های متفاوت تورم بر نرخ رشد اقتصادی و تعیین حد آستانه‌ای نرخ تورم در ایران در قالب مدل‌های غیرخطی. پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان، 16، 140-121.
سیدشکری، خشایار؛ کارخانه، اکرم. (1395). بررسی اثر تورم بر رشد اقتصادی: مطالعه کشورهای منتخب سازمان کنفرانس اسلامی، اطلاعات سیاسی-اقتصادی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران.
عطرکار روشن، صدیقه؛ قرهی، آزاده. (1391). بررسی رابطه بین حجم پول ، سطح عمومی قیمت‌ها ورشد اقتصادی در ایران در طول دوره پس از انقلاب (۱۳۵۸-۱۳۸۹).اقتصاد مالی،6(19)، 110-89.
قربانی‌زاده، وجه‌الله. (1392). راهنمای کاربردی فراتحلیل با نرم افزارCMA2. تهران، جامعه‌شناسان.
فلیحی، نعمت؛ بخارایی، ریحانه. (1396). بررسی اثر عمق مالی بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران. اقتصاد مالی، 11(38)، 80-63.
منتظری شورکچالی، جلال. (1389). بررسی ارتباط بین تورم و رشد اقتصادی: رویکرد غیرخطیSTR. پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تبریز.
منکیو،گریگوری. (1383). اقتصاد کلان. ترجمه حمیدرضا برادران شرکا و علی پارسیان، تهران، انتشارات دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی.
References
Azkia, M., Tavakoli, M. (2006). Meta-analysis of job satisfaction studies in educational organizations. Social Sciences Quarterly, 27, 1-26 [In Persian].
Beheshti, K. (2014). The impact of inflation, inflation uncertainty and government expenditure on economic growth in Iran. M.Sc. Thesis, University of Tabriz [In Persian].
Cohen, J. (1998). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (second edition). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Piraei, K., Dadvar, B. (2011). The effect of inflation on economic growth in Iran with emphasis on uncertainty, Research on growth and sustainable development. Economic Research, 38, 67-80 [In Persian].
Tafazoli, F. (1999). Macroeconomics, economic theory and economic policies, Tehran, Ney Publishing [In Persian].
Haghdoost, A.A. (2011). Structured and meta-analysis review, concepts, applications and calculations. Kerman Institute of Researchers without Borders [In Persian].
Hanta, M. (2016). Study of the phenomenon of money neutrality in the Iranian economy. Quarterly Journal of Financial Economics, 12(42), 47-74.
Delavar, A. (2001). Theoretical and scientific foundations of research in the humanities, Tehran, Roshd Publications [In Persian].
Rezaian, M. (2006). Descriptive glossary of meta-analyzes. Tehran, Iranian Journal of Medical Sciences [In Persian].
Soheili, K., Del Angizan, S. (2013). Estimating the effect of different inflation rates on economic growth rate and determining the threshold of inflation rate in Iran in the form of nonlinear models. Journal of Macroeconomics, 16, 121-140 [In Persian].
Seyed Shokri, K., Karkhaneh, A. (2016). A study of the effect of inflation on economic growth: A study of selected countries of the organization of the islamic conference, political-economic information. Islamic Azad University, Tehran [In Persian].
Atrkar Roshan, S., Qarahi, A. (2012). Study of the relationship between money supply, general level of prices and economic growth in Iran during the post-revolutionary period (1980-2010). Quarterly Journal of Financial Economics, 4(6), 89-110 [In Persian].
Ghorbanizadeh, V. (2013). Practical guide to meta-analysis with CMA2 software. Tehran, Sociologists [In Persian].
Espinoza, R., Leon, H., Prasad, A. (2010). Estimating the inflation–growth nexusa smooth transition model. IMF Working Paper, www.imf.org/external /pubs/ft/wp /2010/wp1076.pdf.
Falihi, N., Webkharaei, R. (2017). Study of the effect of financial depth on economic growth in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Financial Economics, 11(38), 63-80 [In Persian].
Montazeri Shurkchali, J. (2010). Investigating the relationship between inflation and economic growth: A nonlinear STR approach. M.Sc. Thesis, University of Tabriz [In Persian].
Mankiw, Gregory (2004) Macroeconomics, Hamidreza Baradaran shoraka and Ali parsian, Tehran, Allameh University Press.
Macaskill, P., Walter, S.D., Irwig, L. (2001). A comparison of methods to detect publication bias in meta‐analysis. Statistics in medicine, 20(4), 641-654.
Barro, R.J. (2013). Inflation and Economic Growth. Bank of England, Quarterly Bulletin, 35, 166-76.
Khan, M. (2016). Evidence on the functional form of inflation and output growth variability relationship in European economies. International Economics, 146, 1-11.
Gokal, V., Hanif, S. (2004). Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth. Working Paper, www.reservebank.gov.fj/docs/2004_04_wp.pdf.
Ibarra, R., Trupkin, Danilo R., (2016). Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries? Economic Modeling, Elsevier, 52(PB), 332-351.
Little, J.H., Corcoran, J., Pillai, V. (2008). Systematic reviews and meta-analysis. Published by Oxford University Press.
Macaskill, P., Walter, S.D., Irwig, L. (2001). A comparison of methods to detect publication bias in meta‐analysis. Statistics in medicine, 20(4), 641-654.
Thompson S.G., Sharp S.J. (1999(. Comparison of methods. Statistics in Medicine, 18(20), 2693-2708.
Wolf, F.M. (1986). Meta-analysis: Quantitative methods for research  synthesis. Beverly Hills, CA:Sage Publications.
Journal of Development and Capital
Volume 5, Issue 2 - Serial Number 9
April 2020
Pages 137-151

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 24 June 2020
  • Revise Date: 03 December 2020
  • Accept Date: 26 December 2020

Share

How to cite

Statistics