Investigating the Impact of the Uncertainty of Financial, Monetary, Income and Currency Policies on the Entrepreneurship Index in Iran

Objective: In recent decades, entrepreneurship has been raised as a panacea for the economic growth and development of countries in economic debates, and it has been recommended to pay attention to it in the economic policies of governments. The entrepreneurship component is a type of indicator influencing the economic growth of countries that economic policymakers have paid attention to in the past decade. In the past few decades, economic growth and development has been one of the most important issues of countries, because the rate of economic growth is one of the most important factors that are considered in evaluating the performance of economic policies of different countries. In other words, it can be said that countries with higher economic growth have more effective economic policies than countries with lower growth. When critical conditions occur in the economy of countries, the attention of policymakers is focused on the components and tools that can have positive effects on economic growth. The importance of entrepreneurship in the economy and its effects on the economic growth of countries is one of the essential issues. It should be noted that the adoption of monetary, financial, income and foreign exchange policies by governments and how these policies are implemented can have significant positive or negative effects on the performance of entrepreneurs and small and medium business owners; In other words, it should be said that although the effects of entrepreneurship on the economic growth of different countries have been investigated in several studies, the variable of entrepreneurship is also affected by macroeconomic policies. The business environment of each country can be analyzed through different indicators. Despite the strengths and weaknesses of each of the indicators of the business environment, it should not be neglected that these indicators are important from several dimensions. The main question that this study seeks to answer is: Will the uncertainty of monetary, financial, income and currency policies affect the amount of entrepreneurship in the economy?







Methods: In this study, the fuzzy possibility regression model was used. This model obtains the most favorable regression equation by minimizing the degree of fuzziness. To achieve a good fit, an optimal model should be estimated. Considering that the membership functions used to display fuzzy numbers are triangular, fuzzy regression can be formulated in the form of a linear programming problem. Fuzzy regression models were first presented by Tanaka et al. in (1982). These models obtain the best regression equation by minimizing the degree of fuzziness. This is done by minimizing the total width of the membership functions of the fuzzy coefficients of the regression equation.



Results: According to what was said, in most of the issues related to entrepreneurship, the impact of the uncertainty of economic variables has not been examined. In this study, in order to model and examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the entrepreneurship index, the fuzzy regression model has been used. For this purpose, liquidity variables, government expenditures, exchange rate margin, and minimum wage have been considered as uncertainty in monetary, financial, foreign exchange, and income policies, respectively. The results of this study are very important in analyzing the uncertainty of economic policies due to the flexibility of fuzzy regression from different aspects. In this study, degrees of membership from 0.1 to 0.9 were used, the closer we get to the degree of membership of 0.9, it indicates the reduction of uncertainty in economic policies. Also, the right and left widths were estimated using fuzzy range values. By calculating the mentioned widths, the impact of uncertainty in economic policies was investigated. The remarkable point related to the results in this study is that the growth of entrepreneurship in the country has a special potential capacity in such a way that with the reduction of uncertainty in economic policies, the growth of entrepreneurship will increase greatly.



Conclusion: Several studies using econometric methods, including classical regression, have investigated the factors affecting the entrepreneurship index. However, in this study, the fuzzy regression model was introduced and its ability to investigate the uncertainty of economic policies on entrepreneurship was considered. Because econometric models need complete and definite information for specification due to structural reasons, while the factors affecting entrepreneurship are fluctuating. Therefore, considering the inevitability and uncertainty of economic variables, we need a precise modeling. Fuzzy regression model has great explanatory power due to its high flexibility compared to classical regression by estimating the right and left width of the entrepreneurship index. One of the important features of this study is the estimation of the right and left width of the entrepreneurship index, through this width, it is possible to determine the effectiveness of the entrepreneurship index from uncertainty, or in other words, the fluctuation of economic variables. According to the characteristics of fuzzy regression, values of centers and fuzzy width were calculated. The results of the fuzzy width of monetary policies compared to other policies show that the entrepreneurship index increases strongly with the decrease of uncertainty. Examining the results of the values of the fuzzy centers shows that financial policies have a constant effect on entrepreneurship at all levels of membership. This issue is very worthy of consideration, since the structure of the government's financial policies and budget should be revised and efforts should be made to focus the government's investments on the sectors of the economy that can be exploited more quickly and require less capital. they do. The values of the fuzzy width of currency and income policies also show that with the increase in the degree of membership, which indicates the reduction of the uncertainty effect of the said policy, they have a significant effect on increasing entrepreneurship. In other words, economic instability and exchange rate fluctuations that practically companies and business owners cannot start entrepreneurial activities and new investments. The general conclusion of this study shows that the role of the government in entrepreneurship through policy making in the economy is very important.