The Non-Linear Effect of the Reduction of Oil Revenue on Macroeconomic Variables with the Approach (TVAR)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22103/jdc.2024.24167.1507

Abstract

Objective: This research investigates the effect of oil revenue reduction on macroeconomic variables in a non-linear way.
 
Method: The obvious feature of oil revenues is instability and sudden changes, on the other hand, different impact mechanisms that cause asymmetric and non-linear effects on economic variables. Therefore, in a non-linear way, we investigated the effect of the reduction of oil revenues on three variables of economic growth, exchange rate and index of consumer goods and services from 2003-2021 with the TVAR model.
 
Results: It has been estimated by choosing the growth rate of oil revenues as a threshold variable in two regimes (-0/021). Instantaneous reaction functions indicate that the effect of the growth rate of oil revenues on the economic growth rate is different in two regimes and this effect is greater in the low regime than in the upper regime.The effect of the growth rate of oil revenues on the variables of the growth rate of the exchange rate and the growth rate of the index of consumer goods and services is different in two high and low regimes. And the effect of reducing the growth rate of oil revenues in the low regime on the growth rate of the exchange rate is greater than the other two variables.
 
Conclusion: it is recommended that the government by increasing the share of the foreign exchange income stabilization fund, when oil income increases, and the central bank, by applying monetary and banking policies, take action against more fluctuations in the exchange rate when oil income decreases.

Keywords

Main Subjects


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