Identification of Non-fragile Main Variables Affecting Economic Development (Study of Iran's Provinces)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

10.22103/jdc.2025.24107.1505

Abstract

Objective: Human development plays a key role in economic development and has an important effect for achieving sustainable development. Development path in different regions can affect the management and power concentration. In regard of helping policymakers to choose the right policies by paying simultaneously attention to economic and non-economic dimensions, we try to identify the most important factors affecting economic development, focusing on human development.
 
Method: This paper uses iran's provinces data for 73 variables from 2012 to 2021. the relevant data were applied to Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Time-Varying Parameter Dynamic Model Averaging (TVP- DMA), and the Time-Varying Parameter Dynamic Model Selection (TVP-DMS) models. Among these, the BMA model demonstrated the highest accuracy based on the error rate. After model estimation, 20 main indicators were identified as influential variables.
 
Results: These variables are identified as non-fragile variables which is mentioned as follows: provincial government total expenditures, provincial government expenses, private investments, household food cost ratio, tax to government total expenditures, provincial unemployment, manufacturing and mining value added, active population, provincial inflation, higher education index, middle income, urban gini index, sanctions, HDI (national), oil revenue, inflation, exchange rate, good governance index, financial structure of financing from the bank index, resistance economy index.
 
Conclusion: It can be concluded that human development index in iran's provinces, is strongly effected by inflation, government provincial non financial expenses, sanctions, oil income and gini index.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Journal of Development and Capital

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  • Receive Date: 30 September 2024
  • Revise Date: 25 January 2025
  • Accept Date: 16 March 2025

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