اثر بهبود وضعیت سلامت بر رشد اقتصاد و کیفیت زیست محیطی در چارچوب یک الگوی تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا بیزین

شهبازخانی, ولی الله; حری, حمیدرضا; کشاورزی, علی

doi:10.22103/jdc.2023.21943.1410

اثر بهبود وضعیت سلامت بر رشد اقتصاد و کیفیت زیست محیطی در چارچوب یک الگوی تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا بیزین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ گروه اقتصاد، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران.

² گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

10.22103/jdc.2023.21943.1410

چکیده

هدف: هدف پژوهش حاضر درک اثر بهبود وضعیت سلامت بر رشد اقتصاد و کیفیت زیست محیطی ایران است.
روش: در این پژوهش، جهت بررسی اثر تکانه مثبت سلامت بر رشد اقتصاد و کیفیت زیست محیطی ایران از یک الگوی تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا و رویکرد بیزی استفاده شده است. به این منظور از داده‏های قابل مشاهده سری زمانی تولید ناخالص داخلی بدون نفت، مخارج مصرف خصوصی، مخارج سرمایه‏گذاری خصوصی و مخارج دولت در دوره زمانی 1401:2-1380:1 استفاده شده است.
یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان داد تکانه مثبت سلامت، زمان ورزش و مخارج سلامت را افزایش داده و به دلیل تناسب بین زمان کار و زمان ورزش، زمان کار کاهش می‏یابد. نتیجه چنین رخدادی، کاهش بهره‏وری نهایی سرمایه و متعاقب آن کاهش درآمد است. نظر به کاهش درآمد خانوار، مخارج مصرفی و همچنین مخارج سرمایه‏گذاری خصوصی با کاهش مواجه می‏شوند. نظر به کاهش تولید رشد اقتصادی در کوتاه‏مدت، جریان آلودگی کاسته شده و کیفیت زیست محیطی بهبود کوتاه‏مدت را تجربه می‏کند.
نتیجه‎گیری: به صورت کلی، یک تکانه مثبت سلامت ناشی از افزایش بهره‏وری سرمایه‏گذاری سلامت، منجر به بهبود متغیرهای بخش سلامت می‏شود. از سوی دیگر، این تکانه، متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد را در کوتاه‏مدت با کاهش مواجه می‏کند. همچنین متغیرهای زیست محیطی در مواجهه با تکانه مثبت سلامت، وضعیت مناسب‏تری در کوتاه مدت خواهند داشت. در این راستا توصیه‏هایی در این پژوهش جهت نیل به توسعه پایدار ارائه شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

اقتصاد توسعه

مراجع

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