شناسایی متغیرهای غیرشکننده مؤثر بر توسعه اقتصادی (بررسی در سطح استان‌های ایران)

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

10.22103/jdc.2025.24107.1505

چکیده

هدف: دستیابی به سطح عادلانه و پایدار توسعه و رفاه اقتصادی- اجتماعی از اهداف سیاست‌های اقتصادی در تمامی کشورهای جهان است. هدایت جریان توسعه در مناطق مختلف می‌تواند بر نحوه مدیریت منطقه‌ای و قدرت تمرکز در حیطه‌های متفاوت اثرگذار باشد. اتخاذ سیاست‌های مطلوب در این راستا، نیازمند شناسایی مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر توسعه اقتصادی و بررسی همزمان ابعاد اقتصادی و غیراقتصادی است. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی متغیرهای غیرشکننده مؤثر بر توسعه اقتصادی در سطح استان‌های کشور، با تمرکز بر توسعه انسانی است.
 
روش: اطلاعات شاخص‌های 73 عامل مؤثر بر توسعه اقتصادی در بازه زمانی (1400-1391)، وارد مدل‌های BMA، TVP-DMA و TVP-DMS شد. بر اساس میزان خطا، مدل BMA با بالاترین دقت برای برآورد مدل استفاده و 20 متغیر اصلی مؤثر بر توسعه اقتصادی شناسایی گردید.
 
یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان داد مخارج عمومی استان؛ مخارج جاری استان؛ سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی؛ هزینه‌های مواد غذایی به کل هزینه‌ها؛ درآمدهای مالیاتی به مخارج عمومی؛ بیکاری استانی؛ ارزش افزوده صنعت؛ جمعیت فعال؛ تورم استانی؛ تحصیلات عالیه؛ درآمد میانه؛ ضریب جینی؛ تحریم؛ شاخص سرمایه انسانی (کل کشور)؛ درآمدهای نفتی؛ تورم؛ نرخ ارز؛ شاخص حکمرانی خوب؛ شاخص ساختار تأمین مالی از بانک و شاخص اقتصاد مقاومتی مهم‌ترین متغیرهای مؤثر بر توسعه اقتصادی هستند.
 
نتیجه‌گیری: تورم، مخارج عمرانی استانی، تحریم‌ها، درآمدهای نفتی و ضریب جینی مهم‌ترین متغیرهای مؤثر بر توسعه اقتصادی بوده‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

مراجع

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انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 01 دی 1404

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 09 مهر 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 06 بهمن 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 26 اسفند 1403

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