توسعه و سرمایه

توسعه و سرمایه

تأثیر نابرابری در توزیع درآمد بر رشد اقتصادی (رهیافت شاخص ترکیبی و QARDL)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
10.22103/jdc.2026.25936.1575
چکیده
هدف: هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر نابرابری درآمدی و شاخص ترکیبی فناوری- سرمایه انسانی بر رشد اقتصادی این کشورها است.
روش: در این پژوهش از داده‌های سالانه 2000 تا 2023 و مدل خودرگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی چندکی (QARDL) استفاده شده است. این روش با ترکیب قابلیت‌های ARDL و رگرسیون چندکی، امکان تحلیل پویای روابط کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت در سطوح متفاوت رشد اقتصادی را فراهم می‌سازد. همچنین به منظور سنجش هم‌زمان سرمایه انسانی و فناوری، شاخصی ترکیبی مبتنی بر تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی (PCA) ساخته شده که شامل متغیرهای سلامت، آموزش، درآمد، امید به زندگی و هزینه تحقیق و توسعه است.
 
یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد نابرابری درآمدی در تمامی چندک‌های 25/0، 50/0، 75/0 و 95/0 اثر منفی و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی دارد. بویژه در کوانتایل‌های بالا، شدت اثر منفی بیشتر است؛ به‌طوری‌که در بلندمدت، نابرابری موجب کاهش 642/0 واحدی رشد اقتصادی در چندک میانی و 902/0 واحدی در چندک 95/0 شده است. همچنین شاخص ترکیبی سرمایه انسانی- فناوری در تمام چندک‌ها اثری مثبت و معنادار بر رشد اقتصادی داشته و بویژه در بلندمدت باعث افزایش 377/0 واحدی در چندک 50/0 شده است.
 
نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج بیانگر آن است که نابرابری درآمدی به‌صورت ساختاری موجب تضعیف رشد اقتصادی در منطقه MENA می‌شود؛ در حالی که بهبود هم‌زمان سرمایه انسانی و فناوری می‌تواند، این اثر منفی را تعدیل کرده و مسیر رشد پایدار را تقویت کند. بنابراین سیاست‌گذاری مؤثر در جهت کاهش نابرابری، همراه با سرمایه‌گذاری در فناوری و سرمایه انسانی، ضرورتی حیاتی برای دستیابی به توسعه پایدار در منطقه است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

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