تحلیل سودآوری در شرایط قبل و بعد از ادغام و تملیک در بانک‌های ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه مالی و بانکداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه مالی و بانکداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

هدف: درسال‌های اخیر نظر به شرایط نامطلوب بخش بانکی، بحث ادغام و تملیک جهت بهبود وضعیت مطرح و بررسی تأثیر آن بر عملکرد مالی بسیار حائز اهمیت است؛ لذا هدف از این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر ادغام و تملیک بر سودآوری بانک‌های فعال در سیستم بانکی ایران در دوره زمانی 1399-1384 است.
روش: کارایی سود از طریق روش‌ تحلیل مرزی تصادفی (SFA) و سودآوری با نسبت سود به دارایی‌های موزون به ریسک اعتباری ارزیابی گردید. همچنین با روش مونت‌کارلو مارکوف سوئیچینگ (MCMC) برای سناریوهای طراحی‌شده و آزمون استرس برای بررسی شوک‌های وارده به سیستم مالی، شرایط قبل و بعد از ادغام ارزیابی گردید.
یافته‌ها: نتایج حاکی از آن است که در سناریوهای فرضی در برخی موارد افزایش و در برخی با کاهش کارایی سود روبه‌رو بوده‌ایم. همچنین بر اساس نتایج رویکرد MCMC میانگین و انحراف معیار شاخص سودآوری در شرایط پس از ادغام 13/36 درصد بهبود پیداکرده است. به‌علاوه نتایج آزمون استرس نشان می‌دهد ادغام و تملیک بر حفظ و تثبیت وضعیت سود بانک پس از ایجاد شوک تأثیر چندانی نداشته است.
نتیجه‌گیری: ادغام و تملیک در برخی موارد ممکن است راهگشا بوده و موجب بهبود عملکرد مالی گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مراجع

کیائی، فاطمه، رهپیک؛ حسن و باقری، محمود (1399). نهاد بازسازی؛ ماهیت و مدل‌ها در نظام بانکی ایران. دانشنامه حقوق اقتصادی، 27(18)، 103-108 https://doi.org/10.22067/lowecon.2021.39390.
جعفری صامت، امیر (1397). ادغام، راهکاری مؤثر جهت جلوگیری از ورشکستگی بانک‌ها. پژوهش‌های پولی و بانکی، 11(37)، 437-466 https://jmbr.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-982-fa.html.
صدری طبایی زواره، سیدمحمدعلی؛ خدامی‌پور، احمد و بهار مقدم، مهدی (1399). شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی عوامل کلیدی موفقیت فرایند ادغام و تملیک در شرکت‌های ایران. دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار (مطالعات مالی)، 46، 137-157 https://journals.srbiau.ac.ir/article_15838.html.
دانش آرا، عصمت؛ عیسایی تفرشی، محمد و شهبازی نیا، مرتضی (1400). ضرورت تدوین نظام حقوقی ویژه برای ادغام بانک‌ها در حقوق ایران با بهره‌برداری از نظام حقوقی آمریکا. نشریه پژوهش‌های حقوق تطبیقی، 25(1)، 87-113 http://clr.modares.ac.ir/article-20-38888-fa.html.
رضازاده کارسالاری، فاطمه و سرگلزایی، فاطمه (1398). تأثیر عملکرد بانکی بر خلق نقدینگی در سیستم بانکی. مطالعات تجربی حسابداری مالی، 16(64)، 113-133 https://www.sid.ir/paper/387351/fa.
References
Benzinga (2019). This day in market history: Penn central bankruptcy. Available at: https://www.benzinga.com/ general/education/21/06/11914540/this-day-in-market-history-penn-central-bankruptcy-1.
Berger, A.N., & Sedunov, J. (2017). Bank liquidity creation and real economic output. Journal of Banking and Finance, 81, 1–19 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.04.005.
Bertrand, O., & Zitouna, H. (2008). Domestic versus cross-border acquisitions: Which impact on the target firms’ performance? Applied Economics, 40(17), 2221-2238 https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600949397.
Ceausescu, A. (2008). Merger and acquisition-a strategic option for companies. Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, 8(1), 59-64 http://www.upet.ro/annals/pdf/Annals-2008-Part1.pdf.
Chen, I.J., & Nguyen, P.L. (2013). The determinants of bank liquidity buffer. Working Paper, DOI: 10.2139/ ssrn.2313541.
Chesang, C.J. (2002). Merger restructuring and financial performance of commercial banks in Kenya. Unpublished Dissertation, School of Business, University of Nairobi http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/22170.
Cowling, K. (1980). Mergers and economic Performance. CUP Archive. https://www.amazon.com/Mergers-Economic-Performance-Keith-Cowling/dp/0521223946.
Cornwell, Ch., Schmidt, P., & Sickles, R.C. (1990). Production frontiers with cross-sectional and time-series variation in efficiency levels, Journal of Econometrics, 46(1–2), 185-200 https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(90)90054-W.
Cummins, J.D., & Xie, X. (2008). Mergers and acquisitions in the US property-liability insurance industry: productivity and efficiency effects. Journal of Banking and Finance, 32(1), 30-55 https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.jbankfin.2007.09.003.
Daneshara, E., Isaei Tafreshi, M., Shahbazinia, M. (2021). The necessity of formulating special legal system for banks mergers in Iranian Law with utilizing US legal system. Comparative Law Researches, 25(1), 87-113 http://clr.modares.ac.ir/article-20-38888-fa.html [In Persian].
David, U.O. (2011). The effect of bank consolidation on Bank performance in Nigeria.
Deneckere, R., & Davidson, C. (1985). Incentives to form coalitions with Bertrand competition. The RAND Journal of Economics, 16(4), 473-486 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2555507.
EduPristine. (2015). Mergers and acquisitions strategies Ellison, D., Elley, R.C., 2022, Banking on more mergers and acquisitions in 2022, hennessy fund reports.
Ellison, D., & Kelley, R.C. (2022). Banking on More Mergers and Acquisitions in 2022. .Hennessy Funds, https://www.hennessyfunds.com/insights/sector-highlight-financials-banking-on-merger.
Finkelstein, S. (1997). Power in top management teams: Dimensions, measurement, and validation. Academy of Management Journal, 35(3), 505-538 https://www.jstor.org/stable/256485.
Fried, H.O., Lovell, C.A., & Yaisawarng, S. (1999). The impact of mergers on credit union service provision. Journal of Banking & Finance, 23(2/4), 367–386 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(98)00090-9.
Garden, K.A., & Ralston, D.E. (1999). The x-efficiency and allocative efficiency effects of credit union mergers. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 9(3), 285-301 https://doi.org/10.1016/ S1042-4431(99)00012-8.
Gaughan, P.A. (2010). Mergers, acquisitions, and corporate restructuring. John Wiley & Sons https://www.amazon.com/ Mergers-Acquisitions-Corporate-Restructurings-Wiley/dp/1119380766.
Golany, B., & Storbeck, J.E. (1999). A data envelopment analysis of the operational efficiency of bank branches. Interfaces, 29(3), 14-26 https://www.jstor.org/stable/25062483.
Green, M.B. (1990). Mergers and Acquisitions Strategies: Geographical and spatial perspectives. Routledge.
Gugler, K., & Konrad, K.A. (2002). Merger target selection and financial structure. University of Vienna and Wissenschafts zentrum Berlin (WZB), Berlin. https://www.wu.ac.at/fileadmin/wu/d/i/iqv/Gugler/Artikel/rio.pdf.
Halkos, G.E., & Tzeremes, N.G. (2013). Estimating the degree of operating efficiency gains from a potential bank merger and acquisition: A DEA bootstrapped approach. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(5), 1658–1668 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.12.009.
Hassan, T., Abed-Ashtiani, F., & Hashemian-Rahaghi, S.R. (2017). Review article: Financial performance measures in mergers and acquisition studies. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3436345.
Heywood, J.S., & McGinty, M. (2007). Mergers among leaders and mergers among followers. Economics Bulletin, 12(12), 1-7 https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-07l10017.html.
Hitchner, J. (2003). Financial valuation: applications and models. (1, Ed.) New York: John Wiley&Sons. https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Valuation-Applications-James-Hitchner/dp/0471761176.
Hongxing, Y., Muhammad, H., & Gulzara, T. (2018). Profitability determinants of financial institutions: Evidence from banks in Pakistan. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(53), 1-28 https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/ jijfss/v6y2018i2p53-d147816.html.
Horne, J.C., Wachowicz, J.M., & Bhaduri, S.N. (2009). Fundamentals of financial management. Pearson Education, Essex https://www.amazon.com/Van-Horne-Fundamentals-Financial-Management/dp/0273713639.
Ibeji, N.I. (2015). The impact of regulatory-induced consolidation on banks' Performance: A case study of an emerging economy https://oatd.org/oatd/record?record=oai%5C%3Aethos.bl.uk%5C%3A678792.
Jafari Samet, A. (2017). Merger is an effective solution to prevent bank bankruptcy. Monetary and Banking Research, 11(37), 437-466 https://jmbr.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-982-fa.html [In Persian].
Johnes, J., & Yu, L. (2008). Measuring the research performance of Chinese higher education institutions using data envelopment analysis. China Economic Review, 19(4), 679–696 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2008.08.004.
Jooste, R. (2021). Mergers and acquisitions strategies 2021: Uncertainties remain, but there is cause for optimism. Maverick insider.
Judy, K., & Gekara, J.M. (2015). Effect of mergers and acquisitions strategies on the operating performance of companies listed at Nairobi securities exchange. International Scientific Research Journal in Business and Management, 1(2), 16-28.
Kainika, O.T. (2017). Effect of mergers and acquisition on organizational Performance of insurance industry in Kenya: A case study of Sanlam. Unpublished MBA Thesis, University of KCA University. http://41.89.49.13:8080/xmlui/bitstream/ handle/123456789/1285/Kainika-Effects%20Of%20Mergers%20And%20Acquisitions%20On%20Organizational% 20%20Performance%20Of%20Insurance%20Industry%20In%20Kenya%20A%20Case%20Study%20Of%20%20Sanlam.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y.
Kaparakis, E.I., Miller, S.M., & Noulas, A.G. (1994). Short-run cost inefficiency of commercial banks: A flexible stochastic Frontier approach. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 26(4), 875-893 https://www.jstor.org/stable/ 2077953.
Kathali, T.D. (2014). Mergers and Acquisition and Performance of commercial banks in Kenya. Unpublished MBA Thesis, Kenyatta University https://ir-library.ku.ac.ke/handle/123456789/19302.
Kiaee, F., Rahpeik, H., & Bagheri, M. (2021). Ph.D. student in private law. University of judicial sciences and administrative services. Encyclopedia of Economic Law Journal, 27(18), 103-128 DOI: 10.22067/lowecon. 2021.39390 [In Persian].
Kiessling, T., & Harvey, M. (2006). The human resource management issues during an acquisition: the target firm's top management team and key managers. The International Journal of Human Resource Management, 17(7), 1307-1320 https://doi.org/10.1080/09585190600756798.
Kimotho, T.N. (2018). Influence of mergers and acquisitions strategies on the financial performance of firms listed in Nairobi securities exchange. Unpublished MBA Thesis, Strathmore Business School. https://su-plus.strathmore.edu/handle/11071/6178.
Kochhar, R. (1996). Explaining firm capital structure: the role of agency theory vs. transaction cost economics, Strategic Management Journal, 17(9), 713-728 https://edisciplinas.usp.br/pluginfile.php/7948444/mod_resource/content/ 2/KOCHHAR%2C%20Rahul.%20Explaining%20firm%20capital%20structure-%20The%20role%20of%20 agency%20theory%20vs.%20transaction%20cost%20economics.%20Strategic%20Management%20Journal% 2C%20v.%2017%2C%20n.%209%2C%20p.%20713-728%2C%201996..pdf.
Kumar, S., & Bansal, L. (2008). The impact of mergers and acquisitions strategies on corporate performance in India. Management Decision, 1531-1543 https://doi.org/10.1108/00251740810920029.
Li, Y., Li, F., Emrouznejad, A., Liang, L. and Xie, Q. (2019b). Allocating the fixed cost: An approach based on data envelopment analysis and cooperative game. Annals of Operations Research, 274(1-2), 373-394 https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v274y2019i1d10.1007_s10479-018-2860-9.html.
Machiraju, H.R. (2007). Mergers, Acquisition and takeovers. New Age International. https://www.amazon.in/ Mergers-Acquisitions-Takeovers-H-Machiraju/dp/8122414389.
Mboroto, S. (2012). The effect of Mergers and Acquisitions Strategies on the financial performance of petroleum firms in Kenya. Unpublished MBA Thesis, University of Nairobi. http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/58767.
Mishra, S., Prakash, A.J., & Karels, G.V. (2005). Bank mergers and components of risk: An evaluation. Journal of Economics and Finance, 29(1), 85-96 https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v29y2005i1p85-96.html.
Motis, J. (2007). Mergers and acquisitions strategies motives. Unpublished MBA Thesis, University of Crete https://www.scirp.org/reference/referencespapers?referenceid=2494715.
Muhammad, H., Waqas, M., & Migliori, S. (2019). The impact of M&A on banks financial Performance: Evidence from an emerging economy. Corporate Ownership & Control, 16(3), 52-63 DOI: 10.22495/cocv16i3art5.
Mwanza, B. (2016). Effect of Mergers and Acquisitions Strategies on the financial performance of insurance companies in Kenya. Unpublished MBA Thesis, University of Nairobi. http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/98806.
Ndura, K.M. (2010). Effect of mergers on financial Performance of insurance companies in Kenya. Unpublished MBA Thesis, University of Nairobi http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/5872.
Nguli, J., & Kyule, G. (2020). Mergers and acquisitions strategies: The experience in Kenyan banking industry. KEPPRA. https://kippra.or.ke/mergers-and-acquisitions-the-experience-in-kenyan-banking-industry.
Ogada, A., Njuguna, A., & Achoki, G. (2016). Effect of synergy on financial Performance of merged financial institutions n Kenya. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(9), 199-2017 https://ideas.repec.org/ a/ibn/ijefaa/v8y2016i9p199-207.html.
Oktaviantari, L. (2013). He influence level of banking risks towards the profitability in Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (BPR) in Badung Regency. E-Journal of Management, Udayana University, 2(12), 1617-1633 https://www.sciepub.com/reference/129243.
Ombaka, C., & Jagongo, A. (2018). Mergers and acquisitions strategies on financial performance among selected commercial banks in Kenya. International Academic Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(1), 1-23 https://www.iajournals.org/articles/iajef_v3_i1_1_23.pdf.
Pazarskis, M. (2006). Exploring the improvement of corporate performance after mergers – the case of Greece. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 6, 184-192 https://www.scirp.org/reference/ referencespapers?referenceid=2886866.
Rashid, A., & Naeem, Z. (2017). Effects of mergers on Corporate Performance: An empirical evaluation using OLS and the practical Bayesian methods. https://ideas.repec.org/a/bor/bistre/v17y2017i1p10-24.html.
Rezazadeh Karsalari, F., & Sargolzaei, F. (2018). The effect of banking performance on the creation of liquidity in the banking system. Financial Accounting Empirical Studies, 16(64), 113-133 https://www.sid.ir/paper/387351/fa [In Persian].
Richey, R.G., Kiessling, T.S., Tokman, M., & Dalela, V. (2008). Market growth through mergers and acquisitions: the role of the relationship marketing manager in sustaining performance. Industrial Marketing Management, 37(4), 394-406 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2007.03.002.
Rothschild, R., Heywood, J.S., & Monaco, K. (2000). Spatial price discrimination and the merger paradox. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 30(5), 491-506 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-0462(00)00044-2.
Sadri Tabai Zavareh, S.M.A., & Khodamipour, A., Bahar Moghadam, M. (2019). Identifying and prioritizing the key success factors of the merger and acquisition process in Iranian companies. Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis (Financial Studies), 46, 137-157 https://journals.srbiau.ac.ir/article_15838.html [In Persian].
Sangmi, M., & Nazir, T. (2010). Analyzing financial performance of commercial banks in India: Application of CAMEL model. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Science, 4(1), 46–48 https://www.econstor.eu/ handle/10419/187999.
Schoenberg, R. (2006). Measuring the performance of corporate acquisitions: An empirical comparison of alternative metrics. British Journal of Management, 17(4), 361-370 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8551. 2006.00488.x.
Sethi, M., & Krishnakumar, D. (2012). Methodologies used to determine mergers and acquisitions strategies ' performance. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 16(3), DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1803922.
Shehzad, A., & Fatima, T. (2014). An Analysis of Impact of Merger and Acquisition of Financial Performance of Banks: A case of Pakistan. Performance of Banks: A case of Pakistan. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/234695084.pdf.
Sherman, A.J. (2010). Mergers and acquisitions strategies from A to Z. AMACOM Div American Mgmt Assn. https://www.amazon.com/Mergers-Acquisitions-Z-Andrew-Sherman/dp/0814439020.
Sherman, H.D., & Rupert, T.J. (2006). Do bank mergers have hidden or foregone value? Realized and unrealized operating synergies in one bank merger. European Journal of Operational Research, 168(1), 253-268 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2004.05.002.
Soteriou, A., & Zenios, S.A. (1999). Operations, quality, and profitability in the provision of banking services. Management Science, 45(9), 1221-1238 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2634834.
Thorsten, B., & Asli D.K., & Levine, R. (2004). Bank Concentration and Fragility: Impact and Mechanics. NBER Working Papers 11500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/ 11500.html.
Vodová, P. (2013). Determinants of Commercial Bank Liquidity in Hungary. Financial Internet Quarterly e-Finances, 9(4), 64–71 https://ideas.repec.org/a/rze/efinan/v9y2014i3p64-71.html.
Zhu, Q., Aparicio, J., Li, F., Wu, J., & Kou, G. (2020a). Determining closest targets on the extended facet production possibility set in data development analysis: Modeling and computational aspects. European Journal of Operational Research, Forthcoming, 296(3), 927-939 https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v296y2022i3p927-939.html.

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 18 دی 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 16 اسفند 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 16 اسفند 1401

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار