تحلیل و بررسی پاسخ تورم و نرخ ارز به شوک‌های سیاست مالی

سامانپور, حسین; ابراهیمی, مهرزاد; زارع, هاشم

doi:10.22103/jdc.2024.22053.1429

تحلیل و بررسی پاسخ تورم و نرخ ارز به شوک‌های سیاست مالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه اقتصاد، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.

10.22103/jdc.2024.22053.1429

چکیده

هدف: هدف مطالعه حاضر تحلیل و بررسی پاسخ تورم و نرخ ارز به شوک‌های سیاست مالی است.

روش: پژوهش حاضر به تحلیل و بررسی پاسخ تورم و نرخ ارز به شوک‌های سیاست مالی برای سال‌های 1400-1370 با استفاده از مدل خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری (SVAR) می‌پردازد.

یافته‌ها: مطابق نتایج، پاسخ تورم (و نرخ ارز واقعی) به تکانه‌های وارده از جانب مخارج عمرانی دولت به ترتیب از کران بالا تا دو دوره روند صعودی و سپس نزولی (برای نرخ ارز واقعی از کران بالا تا دو دوره روند نزولی و سپس تا یک دوره نزولی) و در نهایت در بلندمدت به سمت صفر تعدیل می‌شود. مشاهده می‌شود مخارج عمرانی دولت بیشتر از ناحیه نرخ ارز واقعی نسبت به تورم از تکانه‌ها در اقتصاد ایران اثر می‌پذیرد. همچنین پاسخ تورم (و نرخ ارز واقعی) به تکانه‌های وارده از جانب مخارج مصرفی دولت به ترتیب از کران پایین و بالا تا دو دوره صعودی (برای نرخ ارز واقعی از کران بالا تا دو دوره نزولی و کران پایین تا یک دوره صعودی) می‌شود.

نتیجه‌گیری: مطابق نتایج برای اقتصاد ایران، شوک‌های مخارج دولت، تورمی هستند و نرخ واقعی ارز را افزایش می‌دهند، این عوامل منجر به بدتر شدن تراز تجاری می‌شود و مصرف خصوصی را کاهش می‌دهد. این پویایی‌ها با پیش‌بینی‌های نظری استاندارد، چرخه تجاری واقعی و تئوری‌های قدیمی و جدید کینزی همسو هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مراجع

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